[ 2014-10-15 ]

Ebola cases could hit 10,000 a week by December, WHO states
West Africa could see up to 10,000 new Ebola cases
a week within two months, the World Health
Organisation has revealed in a grim new assessment
of the crisis.

The death rate has also risen to 70 per cent for
people who contract the lethal virus, according to
figures released by the United Nations global
health agency.

The WHO had previously estimated the death rate to
be about 50 per cent per cent, already a high
figure for a disease.

The agency increased its Ebola death toll tally to
4,447 people on Tuesday, nearly all of them in
West Africa, from 8,914 cases. The true figure is
thought to be significantly higher as many
relatives have not reported infections and buried
their dead because they fear that they will be put
into isolation wards.

There have been about 1,000 new cases –
confirmed, suspected and probable – per week
during the last four weeks. Bruce Aylward, the WHO
assistant director-general, said that if the world
does not step up its response to the outbreak, "a
lot more people will die" and there will be a huge
need to deal with the spiralling numbers of
cases.

The startling new figures give fresh urgency to
calls for greater resources to tackle the crisis.
Speaking at a news conference in Johannesburg, the
head of Medecins Sans Frontieres in South Africa,
Sharon Ekambaram, lamented that medical workers in
the region have received inadequate assistance
from the international community.

"Where is WHO Africa? Where is the African Union?"
said Dr Ekambaram who worked in Sierra Leone in
August and September. "We've all heard their
promises in the media, but have seen very little
on the ground."

As the new assessment was made public, Mark
Zuckerberg, the billionaire founder of Facebook,
announced that he and his wife Priscilla Chan were
donating $25 million to the Centre for Disease
Control Foundation in the to help fight Ebola.

"We need to get Ebola under control in the near
term so that it doesn't spread further ... that we
end up fighting for decades at large scale, like
HIV or polio," they said in a statement.

Dr Aylward said the 70 per cent death rate made
Ebola "a high mortality disease" in any
circumstance. The WHO target is to isolate 70 per
cent of cases and provide treatment as soon as
possible over the next two month in an effort to
reverse outbreak, he said.

"It would be horrifically unethical to say that
we're just going to isolate people," he said,
noting that new strategies like handing out
protective equipment to families and setting up
very basic clinics was a priority.

Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia have suffered the
brunt of the outbreak and Dr Aylward said WHO was
very concerned about the continued spread of the
disease in their densely-populated capital cities
of Freetown, Conakry and Monrovia.

He said there was no evidence any countries were
hiding Ebola cases but gave warning that countries
bordering the affected area, including Ivory
Coast, Mali and Guinea-Bissau, were at high risk
of importing the disease.

"This is not a virus that's easy to suppress or
hide," he said, noting there hasn't been a huge
amount of international spreading so far. "I don't
expect this virus to just go anywhere. There is
exit screening in place and sick people won't be
moving."

In Germany, an unnamed 56-year-old male UN medical
worker infected with Ebola in Liberia died after
four days in hospital in Leipzig. The man tested
positive for the disease on Oct 6, prompting
Liberia's UN peacekeeping mission to place 41
other staff members under "close medical
observation."

The hospital's chief executive, Dr Iris Minde,
said at the time there was no risk of infection
for other people, since he was kept in a secure
isolation ward specially equipped with negative
pressure rooms that are hermetically sealed.

Source - The Telegraph

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