[ 2014-10-09 ]

Ebola poses $33bn threat to west Africa economy as human cost grows
Concerns grew over the potential global economic
impact of the Ebola outbreak in west Africa after
the World Bank warned on Wednesday that the region
faced a $32.6bn economic hit if the disease was
not contained.

The grim estimate from World Bank economists came
ahead of a meeting in Washington on Thursday
between the presidents of the three main affected
countries – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone –
and the heads of key international institutions.
It provided the starkest picture yet of the
growing economic cost of an outbreak that has
already left at least 3,879 people dead in west
Africa and this week saw a nurse in Madrid catch
the virus, the first case to originate outside
Africa.

The warning from the World Bank also came as
doctors in Texas said a 42-year-old man who had
contracted Ebola during a visit to Liberia last
month had died in an isolation unit at a Dallas
hospital despite being treated with an
experimental antiviral drug.

In Spain, Mariano Rajoy, the prime minister,
appealed for calm after another nurse who was in
contact with Ebola patients at a hospital in
Madrid became the sixth person to be held under
close medical surveillance there. In a statement
to parliament Mr Rajoy urged the public to let the
country’s health professionals do their work and
said Spain had one of the “best health systems
in the world”.

Meanwhile, the UK announced it is sending 750
military personnel to Sierra Leone to help fight
the spread of the disease, as well as a navy aid
ship and three helicopters to help reach remote
areas. It is also committing to opening extra
medical units in the country, with an additional
700 beds.

Anxieties over the widening impact of the outbreak
hit shares in airlines, hotels and travel
companies for a second day on Wednesday. US
officials have said they plan to increase health
screenings of inbound passengers from west Africa
and investors are concerned about the potential
for a broader impact on travel as people choose to
stay at home rather than expose themselves to any
risk of infection from fellow travellers.

The World Travel and Tourism Council, which
represents airlines, hotels and other travel
companies, said reports were emerging from Africa
that forward bookings were down by up to 30 per
cent in some key destinations.
But the main concern remained over the impact in
Africa where cases continue to climb and officials
fear the potential fallout for economies trying to
establish a new narrative of fast growth and
economic transformation.

According to the World Bank’s estimates under a
“Low Ebola” scenario, which would see the
outbreak contained to those three countries by the
end of this year, the impact on gross domestic
product would amount to $3.8bn by the end of
2015.

But under a “High Ebola” scenario, under which
the outbreak spreads to neighbouring countries in
west Africa such as Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal,
the hit to the region’s economy would be $7.4bn
this year and a further $25.2bn in 2015, or the
equivalent of 3.3 per cent of regional GDP.

Source - FT

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