[ 2014-01-02 ]

Speculation mounts over a return by Nicolas Sarkozy
Will 2014 see the return to frontline politics of
Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s former centre-right
“omnipresident” unseated two years ago by
François Hollande, his socialist nemesis?

After a year of rising unemployment and a
simmering tax revolt, which saw Mr Hollande’s
popularity plummet to record lows, an eventual
Sarkozy return has become almost an assumption in
the French media.

“I cannot not return. I don’t have a choice.
It is inevitable,” Le Point magazine quoted the
former president as telling visitors last month.

Mr Sarkozy’s spokeswoman denied the quote. The
official line is that he has made no move to
return to active politics.

“He is very happy leading the life he has
now,” says a member of his entourage. Mr
Sarkozy, often sporting a fashionable stubble, has
most recently been seen in public attending
concerts given by Carla Bruni, his pop singer
wife. He is present on the international lecture
circuit, though usually at private events.

But he has been careful to eschew potential
money-making projects that could jeopardise a
political comeback, including plans to launch a
Qatari-backed private equity fund.

Occasional public appearances, frequent comments
by politicians with whom he remains in close touch
and reports similar to that in Le Point have
fuelled expectation that a politician famed for
his restless ambition is limbering up for a shot
at revenge against Mr Hollande.

Although the election is three years away in May
2017, Mr Hollande’s troubles and a leadership
vacuum in his UMP party have increased speculation
that a Sarkozy return could happen as soon as this
year.

Jérôme Fourquet of the polling company Ifop
points out that polls show 70 per cent of voters
on the right want Mr Sarkozy back: his nearest
challenger in the UMP is Alain Juppé, his former
foreign minister, on 15 per cent.

“The gap is colossal,” says Mr Fourquet.
“The more time passes, the more shares on the
Sarkozy bourse rise. In my opinion the pressure is
too strong. He’ll have to return in 2014.”

Mr Sarkozy’s pitch would be as a seasoned former
president, playing the role of a national
“saviour” with the experience to lead the
structural reforms needed to revive the economy,
says Geoffroy Didier, a leading activist on the
right of the UMP and member of the Friends of
Nicolas Sarkozy group. “He will be the only
person in 2017 able to combine these qualities,”
he says.

This would require Mr Sarkozy to overcome his own
history of unpopularity. Grudging respect for his
relentless efforts with Angela Merkel, German
chancellor, to steer the eurozone through the
worst of its financial crisis was not enough to
offset voter dislike of his “bling-bling”
image in the 2012 election.

Mr Sarkozy continues to face allegations – which
he strongly denies – of illegal campaign
donations from former Libyan leader Muammer
Gaddafi. One of his closest aides, Claude Guéant,
is under judicial investigation over alleged
misuse of thousands of euros in public cash while
working in government with Mr Sarkozy –
allegations also denied.

But a “renaissance” of Mr Sarkozy is on the
cards, says Jacques Séguéla, vice-president of
the Havas advertising group and the man who
introduced Mr Sarkozy to Ms Bruni.

“It is entirely possible because there is no one
else. François Hollande has succeeded in making
every category of French voters unhappy,” he
says.
An Ifop poll in late December showed Mr Sarkozy
rising to 15th in the list of most popular
personalities in France, the leading political
figure and far ahead of Mr Hollande in 49th
place.

Source - FT

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