[ 2011-04-16 ]

Nigeria at the polls
Nigeria goes to the polls on Saturday to elect a
new president. But can Africa's most populous
nation and the continent's major oil producer
stage a free and fair vote to bring the changes it
needs to strengthen stability both at home and
across the region?.

Why does it matter?
Oil and economic muscle. Thanks to its size and
abundant resources, Nigeria has both regional and
global strategic importance. The country of 150
million people is Africa's most populous and its
biggest market. Its booming economy is on track to
surpass South Africa's next year to become the
continent's largest.

As the world's fourth largest oil exporter to the
United States, Nigeria generates billions of
dollars in oil revenues. As a key regional
peacekeeper, Nigeria's democratic processes are
also seen as a benchmark for other African
nations.

"The stability and success of its political
process is crucial to the stability and growth of
Africa," says Peter Cunliffe-Jones, author of "My
Nigeria: Five Decades of Independence."

Who are the main candidates?
Incumbent Goodluck Jonathan is seen as the
front-runner. His People's Democratic Party has
been in power since a return to democracy 12 years
ago. Jonathan, a former zoologist with a penchant
for stylish hats, assumed the presidency in 2010
after his predecessor, Umaru Yar'Adua, left for
medical treatment in Saudi Arabia and subsequently
died.

Jonathan hails from the country's oil-rich
southern Niger Delta region. If he wins, he will
be the first politician from the Delta ever
elected as president.

Muhammedu Buhari, a retired general who has
unsuccessfully run for office several times, is
seen as Jonathan's main challenger. Buhari's
Congress for Progressive Change party has massive
support in the country's north -- which has been
Nigeria's powerbase for 38 years of Nigeria's
half-century existence since independence.

If victorious, Buhari -- who put his previous
election defeats down to foul play -- will be the
first candidate ever to beat an incumbent.

Jonathan's other significant rival is Nuhu Ribadu,
a former chairman of Nigeria's anti-corruption
committee who is now the candidate of the Action
Congress of Nigeria, the largest opposition party.
Ribadu's powerbase lies in the country's
southwest.

What are the key issues?
Security, oil, electricity and corruption.
Nigeria's oil industry is the country's main
source of wealth, but also a source of many of its
woes. Most major international oil companies have
interests in Nigeria, creating billions of dollars
in export revenues.

Recent years have seen damaging attacks on Niger
Delta oil facilities and workers by marginalized
militias demanding a greater share of this wealth.
Some politicians, often also accused of
manipulating ethnic-religious tensions for
personal gain, are accused of using the militias
to support their power bases.

An estimated 13,500 people have died in religious
or ethnic clashes since the end of military rule
in 1999, Human Rights Watch said in a report last
year.

Corruption, a key platform for Buhari and Ribadu,
is blamed for the loss of billions of dollars of
Nigeria's oil profits. Highly-paid politicians are
seen as major culprits. In the past four years,
$40 billion has vanished from Nigeria's oil
revenue accounts.

Electricity is another major issue for Nigerians,
according to CNN's Christian Purefoy.
Infrastructure problems mean most Nigerians only
have access to a few hours of power a day.
Jonathan is campaigning to privatize the country's
electricity sector while Buhari wants reform.

Will the election run smoothly?
While many view the outcome as a foregone
conclusion, a Jonathan victory risks upsetting
Nigeria's delicate ethnic-religious and
geographical balance. The candidacy of a Christian
from the south challenges Nigeria's traditional
northern powerbase and could hurt the ruling
party's chances among voters who feel it is the
turn of a northern Muslim to take power, says
Cunliffe-Jones. Nigeria has had a system of
alternating Muslim and Christian presidents since
the end of military rule in 1989.

Election observers in Nigeria are optimistic that
the vote will be free and fair, and much faith has
been placed in Attahiru Jega, the tough-talking
new head of the country's Independent National
Electoral Commission. If he succeeds in overcoming
fears of ballot rigging, says Purefoy, it will
help bring stability, security and investment.

But, he says, the People's Democratic Party, which
has ruled Nigeria as a one-party state for the
past 12 years, has previously overseen corrupt and
violent elections to keep itself in power, raising
the possibility of trouble.

Cunliffe-Jones says confidence in the electoral
process could produce a closer-than-normal result
in the vote, which will bring its own problems.
"Every election since 1999 has been disputed by
the losers and I think you can very confidently
predict that that will happen again. That said a
majority of Nigerians have, for the first time, a
lot of confidence in the head of the electoral
commission."

Will the election bring change?
Since the end of military rule, Nigeria's
government has yet to deliver on many of its
promises to improve the lives of the people.
Average life expectancy is 47 years of age, at
least 70 percent of the population lives on less
than $2 a day. Education, healthcare and
infrastructure have all collapsed, and the biggest
city Lagos runs on a few hours of electricity a
day.

Purefoy says that while a peaceful election will
improve Nigeria's international image and
encourage foreign investors, it may carry a price
tag of debts and favors that will hamper future
development.

Source - CNN

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