[ 2021-02-04 ]

Coronavirus: Africa's second waves sees rising death rate

By Peter Mwai
South Africa has had the most cases on the
continent

There is evidence that the death rate for those
infected with Covid-19 in Africa is on the
increase.

And although the overall number of new cases has
fallen in some countries, it remains persistently
high in others, with many of these cases possibly
linked to new variants of the virus.
What's happening to case numbers?

At least 40 countries have now seen a second wave
of the pandemic, including all countries in the
southern Africa region, says the Africa Centres
for Disease Control (CDC).

"This new wave of infections is thought to be
associated with the emergence of variants that are
more transmissible."

A new variant of the virus - known as 501.V2 -
emerged in South Africa last year, and has
contributed to record case numbers in the southern
African region, according to the World Health
Organization (WHO).

South Africa variant: What's the risk?

"Initial analysis indicates that the variant...
may spread more readily between people," according
to the WHO.

However, it doesn't appear to cause more serious
illness.

In South Africa itself, daily new case numbers
have started to fall significantly after a second
peak.

And because there are many more cases in South
Africa than anywhere else on the continent, this
has resulted in an overall fall of 17% in cases
across the continent, according to the CDC.

In Nigeria, scientists have also identified a new
variant of the virus, although they say there is
currently no evidence to indicate it is
contributing to increased transmission.

However, cases in Nigeria have been on the rise
since early December, and are only just starting
to trend downwards.

However, the numbers have started to level off
(the WHO data excludes Morocco, Tunisia, Libya,
Egypt, Sudan, Djibouti and Somalia).

During the first stage of the pandemic, Africa's
overall fatality rates -the proportion of those
with Covid who then die - were lower than those
elsewhere in the world.

There were a number of theories put forward as to
why that might be the case, such as the relatively
younger population, and possible cross-immunity
from other coronaviruses.

But the Africa CDC has now warned about rising
fatality rates in the continent, saying that of
the 55 countries they monitor, 21 are now
reporting fatality rates above the current global
average of 2.2%.

The fatality rate for Africa has crept up since
July last year when it was 2.1% - to 2.5%
currently.

It's worth pointing out that the global fatality
rate has also come down since the start of the
pandemic, which in itself would put more African
countries above the global average.

And fatality rates are affected by how much
testing is done - a country with low levels of
testing will show a higher death rate because many
non-fatal Covid cases are going undetected.

Source - BBC

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